Izimakethe ze-pellet zomhlaba zikhule kakhulu kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yesidingo esivela emkhakheni wezimboni. Ngenkathi izimakethe zokushisisa ama-pellet zenza inani elibalulekile lesidingo somhlaba wonke, lokhu kubuka konke kuzogxila emkhakheni wezimboni zezinkuni.

Izimakethe zokushisisa ama-Pellet ziphonselwe inselelo eminyakeni yamuva nje ngezindleko eziphansi zikaphethiloli wokushisisa (amanani kawoyela negesi) nokufudumala kunobusika obujwayelekile eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu. I-FutureMetrics ilindele ukuthi inhlanganisela yamanani aphezulu kawoyela kanye nezinqubomgomo ze-de-carbonization zizobuyisela ukukhula kwesidingo kuthrendi kuma-2020s.

Eminyakeni embalwa edlule, umkhakha we-pellet wokhuni wezimboni wawumkhulu njengomkhakha we-pellet wokufudumeza, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ube mkhulu kakhulu kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Imakethe yezimboni ze-wood pellet iqhutshwa ukuncishiswa kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nezinqubomgomo zokukhiqiza ezivuselelekayo. Amapulangwe okhuni asezimbonini angamafutha aphansi anekhabhoni evuselelekayo athatha kalula indawo yamalahle eziteshini ezinkulu zamandla kagesi.

Ama-pellets angashintshwa esikhundleni samalahle ngezindlela ezimbili, kungaba ukuguqulwa okugcwele noma ukudubula ngokubambisana. Ukuze uthole ukuguqulwa okugcwele, iyunithi yonke esiteshini samalahle iguqulwa isuka ekusebenziseni amalahle iye ekusebenziseni amapulangwe ezinkuni. Lokhu kudinga ukuguqulwa ekuphatheni uphethiloli, amasistimu okuphakelayo, nezimbawula. Ukudubula ngokubambisana ukushiswa kwamapulangwe ezinkuni kanye namalahle. Ezilinganisweni eziphansi zokudubula ngokubambisana, ukuguqulwa okuncane ezikhungweni zamalahle agayiwe ezikhona ziyadingeka. Eqinisweni, ekuhlanganisweni okuphansi (ngaphansi kwamaphesenti angaba yisikhombisa) amapellets ezinkuni, cishe akukho ukuguqulwa okudingekayo.

Isidingo e-UK nase-EU kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke ngo-2020. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula okukhulu kulindeleke eJapane naseNingizimu Korea ngo-2020. Silindele futhi ukuthi i-Canada ne-US zibe nezitshalo zamandla amalahle ezigayiwe zisebenzisa amapulangwe ezinkuni zezimboni ngo-2025.

Isidingo se-Pellet

Amaphrojekthi amasha amakhulu okudubula kanye nokuguqula izinto e-Japan, e-EU nase-UK, naseNingizimu Korea, kanye namaphrojekthi amaningi amancane ezimboni zamandla azimele e-Japan, kulindeleke ukuthi kwengeze amathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-24 ngonyaka esidingweni samanje ngo-2025. ukukhula okulindelekile kuvela eJapan, naseNingizimu Korea.

I-FutureMetrics igcina imininingwane egciniwe enemininingwane yephrojekthi ethile kuwo wonke amaphrojekthi okulindeleke ukuthi adle amapulangwe ezinkuni. Iningi lokuhlinzekwa kwama-pellets ngesidingo esisha esihleliwe e-EU nase-UK selivele lihlelwe nabakhiqizi abakhulu abakhona. Kodwa-ke, izimakethe zase-Japan kanye ne-S. Korean zinikeza ithuba lomthamo omusha, okungukuthi, ingxenye enkulu, hhayi epayipini kusukela namuhla.

EYurophu naseNgilandi

Ukukhula kwangaphambi kwesikhathi (2010 kuze kube manje) emkhakheni we-pellet wokhuni wezimboni kwavela entshonalanga ye-Europe nase-UK Nokho, ukukhula e-Europe kuhamba kancane futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele izinga ekuqaleni kwawo-2020. Ukukhula okusele kwesidingo se-pellet yezinkuni zezimboni zaseYurophu kuzovela kumaphrojekthi aseNetherlands nase-UK

Isidingo sezinkampani zase-Dutch asikaqiniseki, njengoba izikhungo zamalahle zibambezele izinqumo zokugcina zokutshala izimali mayelana nokulungiswa kokuqhunyiswa ngokubambisana kuze kube yilapho zinikezwa iziqinisekiso zokuthi izimboni zazo zamalahle zizokwazi ukuqhubeka nokusebenza. Abahlaziyi abaningi, okuhlanganisa ne-FutureMetrics, balindele ukuthi lezi zinkinga zixazululwe futhi isidingo sama-Dutch cishe sizokhula okungenani ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.5 ngonyaka phakathi neminyaka emithathu kuya kwemine ezayo. Kungenzeka ukuthi imfuno yamaDashi izonyuka ifike kumathani ayizigidi ezi-3.5 ngonyaka uma zone iziteshi zamalahle ezinikezwe uxhaso ziqhubeka nezinhlelo zazo.

Amaphrojekthi amabili ase-UK, ukuguqulwa kwesiteshi sikagesi se-EPH sika-400MW Lynemouth kanye nesikhungo se-MTT sika-Teeside greenfield CHP, okwamanje asasebenza noma asakhiwa. I-Drax isanda kumemezela ukuthi izoguqula iyunithi yesine ukuze isebenze kuma-pellets. Mangakhi amahora azosebenza lelo yunithi ngonyaka akucaci okwamanje. Nokho, uma kubhekwa isinqumo sokutshala izimali senziwe, i-FutureMetrics ilinganisela ukuthi iyunithi yesi-4 izodla amathani angu-900,000 engeziwe ngonyaka. Iyunithi ngayinye eguquliwe esiteshini se-Drax ingadla amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.5 ngonyaka uma isebenza ngokugcwele unyaka wonke. Amaphrojekthi we-FutureMetrics esewonke isidingo esisha esingaba khona e-Europe nase-England ngamathani ayizigidi eziyisi-6.0 ngonyaka.

Japan

Isidingo se-biomass e-Japan siqhutshwa ngokuyinhloko izingxenye ezintathu zenqubomgomo: Uhlelo lokusekela lwe-Feed in Tariff (FiT) lwamandla avuselelekayo, amazinga okusebenza kahle kwezitshalo ezishisayo zamalahle, kanye nezinhloso zokukhishwa kwekhabhoni.

I-FiT inikeza abakhiqizi bamandla abazimele (ama-IPP) inani elimisiwe lamandla avuselelekayo esikhathini esinwetshiwe senkontileka - iminyaka engama-20 yamandla e-biomass. Okwamanje, ngaphansi kwe-FiT, ugesi okhiqizwe “ngokhuni olujwayelekile,” oluhlanganisa amapellets, amapulangwe, amagobolondo e-palm kernel (PKS), uthola uxhaso luka-21 ¥/kWh, phansi kusukela ku-24 ¥/kWh ngaphambi kukaSepthemba 30, 2017. Nokho, amaphuzu e-biomass IPPs athole i-FiT ephakeme avalelwe ngaleso sikhathi (cishe u-$0.214/kWh ngamanani okushintshanisa amanje).

UMnyango Wezohwebo Nezimboni wase-Japan (i-METI) ukhiqize lokho okubizwa ngokuthi “Ingxube Yezamandla Engcono Kakhulu” ka-2030. Kulolo hlelo, amandla e-biomass afinyelela kumaphesenti angu-4.1 engqikithi yokukhiqizwa kukagesi wase-Japan ngo-2030. Lokhu kulingana nangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-26. amathani amamethrikhi ama-pellets (uma wonke ama-biomass bekungamapulangwe okhuni).

Ngo-2016, i-METI yakhipha iphepha elichaza amazinga angcono kakhulu obuchwepheshe obutholakalayo (BAT) ezitshalweni ezishisayo. Leli phepha lithuthukisa amazinga amancane okusebenza kahle kwamajeneretha kagesi. Kusukela ngo-2016, cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu kuphela yesizukulwane samalahle sase-Japan esivela ezitshalweni ezihlangabezana nezinga le-BAT elisebenza kahle. Enye indlela yokuhambisana nendinganiso entsha yokusebenza kahle iwukubambisana ngamapulangwe ezinkuni.

Ukusebenza kahle kwezitshalo kuvame ukubalwa ngokuhlukanisa amandla aphumayo ngokufaka amandla. Ngakho-ke, isibonelo, uma isiteshi sikagesi sisebenzisa u-100 MWh wokufakwa kwamandla ukuze sikhiqize ama-MWh angama-35, leso sikhungo sisebenza ngamaphesenti angama-35 ngokusebenza kahle.

I-METI ivumele okokufaka kwamandla okuvela ekuqhutshweni ngokubambisana kwe-biomass ukuthi kudonswe kokokufakayo. Uma isitshalo esifanayo esichazwe ngenhla sishisa ngokuhlanganyela ama-pellets angu-15 MWh, ukusebenza kahle kwesitshalo ngaphansi kwesibalo esisha kungaba ngu-35 MWh / (100 MWh – 15 MWh) = 41.2 wamaphesenti, okungaphezu komkhawulo ojwayelekile wokusebenza kahle. I-FutureMetrics ibale amathani amapellets ezinkuni azodingeka izitshalo zikagesi zase-Japan ukuze ilethe izitshalo ezisebenza kahle kakhulu ekuthobeleni umbiko osanda kukhululwa we-Japanese Biomass Outlook we-FutureMetrics. Umbiko uqukethe idatha enemininingwane ngesidingo esilindelekile samapulangwe okhuni, igobolondo le-palm kernel, nama-wood chips e-Japan kanye nezinqubomgomo eziqhuba leso sidingo.

Isibikezelo se-FutureMetrics sesidingo se-pellet ngabakhiqizi bamandla abancane abazimele (i-IPPs) singamathani ayizigidi ezi-4.7 ngonyaka ngo-2025. Lokhu kusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwama-IPP angu-140 anemininingwane ku-Japanese Biomass Outlook.

Ingqikithi yesidingo esingaba khona e-Japan esivela ezimbonini zamandla kagesi kanye nama-IPPs singadlula amathani ayizigidi eziyi-12 ngonyaka ngo-2025.

Isifinyezo

Kukhona izinga eliphezulu lokuzethemba mayelana nokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwezimakethe ze-pellet zezimboni zaseYurophu. Isidingo saseJapan, uma amaphrojekthi e-IPP eseqalile futhi esebenza futhi izinsiza ezinkulu zithola izinzuzo ze-FiT, kufanele futhi zizinzile futhi kungenzeka zikhule njengokubikezela. Isidingo sesikhathi esizayo e-S. Korea sinzima kakhulu ukusilinganisela ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kwezintengo zama-REC. Sekukonke, i-FutureMetrics ilinganisela ukuthi isidingo esisha esingaba khona samapulangwe ezinkuni ezimbonini kuze kube ngu-2025 singaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezingama-26 ngonyaka.